The attempted color revolution in the USA will fail, but so will the Trump regime's counter-revolution (mostly).
The USA will then go into a soft-Balkanization, with people migrating to where they feel most comfortable. Some regions will thrive, others will fall halfway to third world shitholes.
We will enter a period where power devolves to state & local governments, controlled by networks of familiarity and patronage. Many foreigners will elect to leave, as the money dries up. The USA will slowly emerge from this (over decades) to be something much closer to what it was supposed to be from it's founding, but high-tech instead of agrarian.
Faith in many institutions will collapse, especially medicine/big pharma, leading to a new industry that examines botanicals, traditional medicine, etc. with a much more rigorous method, leading to a boom in health.
The Abrahamic religions will be shaken to their core as the truth comes out about the various traditions due to proper translations of the various 'sacred' texts. Christianity will experience a resurgence, but it will be entirely based on the actual teachings of Jesus (from the New Testament, and also other texts, e.g. The Gospel of Thomas).
New technology will start to leak out from various secret agencies as the ones keeping those secrets start selling bits off because they aren't getting paid in any meaningful way.
Eventually non-human sentient beings, technically advanced in many ways superior to ours, are officially admitted to exist, and will be revealed to be here on Earth (and may have always been here).
The prediction-as-paradigm argument is fascinating, particularly how it reframes speculation as meaning-making rather than just gambling. That shift from consuming personalized, safe content to wanting predictive engagement makes sence when you see how fast prediction markets have mainstreamed. I've watched Polymarket go from niche to watercooler talk in under ayear, which suggests people actually crave the stake in outcomes, not just passive observation.
Point 4 is really interesting, never seen it articulated but have thought something like this for a while. I’ve speculated in stocks for years and have some knowledge of chart reading and have noticed that as charts are a reflection of group psychology they can be used to understand world events. The movements of hysteria during COVID for instance ironically (due to the appearance of meme stocks in that era) behaved something like a meme stock.
If you were someone seeking social capital or a power center identifying certain trends could be helpful. For instance, the chart showing the hyper-liberal beliefs as social commodity:
Ground floor 1930s; 1963 early, safe trade 70s and 80s, 90s and 2000s secular bull market, 2012-Present blow off top irrational exuberance, COVID as pinnacle. The trade now is full of true believers, those that need you to keep buying so they can get out and idiots who don’t know what time it is. New buyers beginning to dry up.
This could also have been used to predict Trump as enthusiastic Zionist as opposed to Trump as ardent nationalist.
No where near as good as Breaking Bad or Better Call Saul. I think, so far, there’s too much expected of the leading actress and way too much repetition (also, it has a feel of making stuff up as it’s filmed - can’t think of a plot twist? Cannibalism light!) I suppose compared to 99% of stuff on tv, it’s ok.
Here's some predictions:
The attempted color revolution in the USA will fail, but so will the Trump regime's counter-revolution (mostly).
The USA will then go into a soft-Balkanization, with people migrating to where they feel most comfortable. Some regions will thrive, others will fall halfway to third world shitholes.
We will enter a period where power devolves to state & local governments, controlled by networks of familiarity and patronage. Many foreigners will elect to leave, as the money dries up. The USA will slowly emerge from this (over decades) to be something much closer to what it was supposed to be from it's founding, but high-tech instead of agrarian.
Faith in many institutions will collapse, especially medicine/big pharma, leading to a new industry that examines botanicals, traditional medicine, etc. with a much more rigorous method, leading to a boom in health.
The Abrahamic religions will be shaken to their core as the truth comes out about the various traditions due to proper translations of the various 'sacred' texts. Christianity will experience a resurgence, but it will be entirely based on the actual teachings of Jesus (from the New Testament, and also other texts, e.g. The Gospel of Thomas).
New technology will start to leak out from various secret agencies as the ones keeping those secrets start selling bits off because they aren't getting paid in any meaningful way.
Eventually non-human sentient beings, technically advanced in many ways superior to ours, are officially admitted to exist, and will be revealed to be here on Earth (and may have always been here).
There's more, but those are some of the big ones.
fantastic man! although this seems a bit more than 2026 stuff we appreciate the big picture out of the box thinking a lot!
Admittedly it goes quite a bit beyond, but it looks like we're just cresting the top and we're in for a ride for the ages.
Interesting
The prediction-as-paradigm argument is fascinating, particularly how it reframes speculation as meaning-making rather than just gambling. That shift from consuming personalized, safe content to wanting predictive engagement makes sence when you see how fast prediction markets have mainstreamed. I've watched Polymarket go from niche to watercooler talk in under ayear, which suggests people actually crave the stake in outcomes, not just passive observation.
Point 4 is really interesting, never seen it articulated but have thought something like this for a while. I’ve speculated in stocks for years and have some knowledge of chart reading and have noticed that as charts are a reflection of group psychology they can be used to understand world events. The movements of hysteria during COVID for instance ironically (due to the appearance of meme stocks in that era) behaved something like a meme stock.
If you were someone seeking social capital or a power center identifying certain trends could be helpful. For instance, the chart showing the hyper-liberal beliefs as social commodity:
Ground floor 1930s; 1963 early, safe trade 70s and 80s, 90s and 2000s secular bull market, 2012-Present blow off top irrational exuberance, COVID as pinnacle. The trade now is full of true believers, those that need you to keep buying so they can get out and idiots who don’t know what time it is. New buyers beginning to dry up.
This could also have been used to predict Trump as enthusiastic Zionist as opposed to Trump as ardent nationalist.
“and than craters”
then
very fascinating my friend thanks tony z
2026 hot take: I'm almost certain Pluribus will disappoint us all...but I'm enjoying it so far.
No where near as good as Breaking Bad or Better Call Saul. I think, so far, there’s too much expected of the leading actress and way too much repetition (also, it has a feel of making stuff up as it’s filmed - can’t think of a plot twist? Cannibalism light!) I suppose compared to 99% of stuff on tv, it’s ok.
Very interesting thanks tonyz